Detroit News- Early Primary is Up To Lawmakers
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071112/POLITICS/711120407/1022
Monday, November 12, 2007
Decision 2008
Early primary is up to lawmakers
Action would keep Jan. 15 contest; some Dems push for caucuses instead.
Gordon Trowbridge and Charlie Cain / The Detroit News
After weeks of pledging to put Michigan in the center of the presidential campaign with a Jan. 15 primary, Michigan's political leaders may end that bid once and for all this week.
Without legislative action to save the primary from a court challenge, or a successful appeal of the ruling that has put the primary in doubt, Jan. 15 is off the campaign calendar, vastly diminishing both Michigan's clout in the campaign and the number of Michigan voters who could take part.
Lawmakers in Lansing failed last week in their first attempt to fix the problems identified by an Ingham County judge in the primary process. They could come back as soon as Tuesday to try again, but it remains unclear if Democrats, in particular, are willing to save the primary.
Here's a look at some of the issues at stake:
Question : What the heck happened?
Answer : The real uncertainty began Wednesday, when Ingham Circuit Judge William Collette ruled the law setting the Jan. 15 primary unconstitutional. That law provided for a state-paid primary for both parties, but it gave access to the list of voters who participate to the two parties, rather than the state.
Collette said that was unconstitutional. And because the law contained a clause saying that if one part of the law was challenged, it would render the entire law void, Jan. 15 was off.
Q: Why hasn't the Legislature fixed the law?
A: Republicans accused Democrats of holding out for concessions on other issues, or of blocking the primary because it could help activists collect signatures to recall lawmakers who voted for recent tax increases. Democratic leaders said they still want to fix the primary law, but it remains unclear if the votes are there in either chamber to do so.
Supporters of presidential candidates Barack Obama and John Edwards have opposed the primary; each took his name off the Democratic ballot, because the Jan. 15 contest violates party rules. And some Democrats have suggested that the party opt out of the primary and hold early caucuses to try to challenge New Hampshire's early voting privilege.
But Sen. Carl Levin, a New Hampshire foe who has said the party should consider the early-caucus route, issued his strongest statement yet Friday in support of the primary. "Senator Levin hopes that the issues will be resolved so that Michigan can hold its primary on Jan. 15," said Levin spokeswoman Tara Andringa. That puts perhaps the most prominent proponent of an early caucus solidly in support of those who want a primary.
Q : Why does the date matter?
A : Michigan's move to Jan. 15 was designed to position the state early in the campaign, forcing presidential candidates to address the state's economic woes. So far, that effort has succeeded on the Republican side: GOP candidates held a nationally televised debate here and have made regular trips to the state. Democrats have boycotted Michigan, because the Jan. 15 contest would violate party rules that reserve January for just four states. But the alternatives to Jan. 15 are far less likely to give Michigan much impact on either nomination fight.
Q : What alternatives are there?
A : Without a primary, Republicans would hold a state convention in late January to select their delegates to the national convention, where the party's nominee is formally chosen.
The Democrats' plan is less certain. Their current fallback plan is for party caucuses Feb. 9. But Levin and other party leaders would probably aim for much earlier caucuses if the primary dissolves.
Q : Who would vote?
A : Loss of the primary would dramatically shrink the number of Michigan voters with a say in the nominations. A GOP convention would likely involve 5,000 or so activists, first at county conventions and then at the state gathering. Those activists would be precinct- and county-level officials, not ordinary voters.
For Democrats, caucus voters would have to sign a statement affirming that they are Democrats. In 2004, about 160,000 voted in the party's Feb. 7 caucus.
Q: Will the candidates still campaign here?
A : Perhaps, but not nearly as much. GOP front-runner Rudy Giuliani told a magazine last week he would spend less time in Michigan if the primary isn't held, though a campaign spokesman also said Giuliani considers Michigan a state he can win in the general election.
John Yob, a Michigan native and top campaign aide for John McCain, said he still thinks town hall meeting-style appearances, such as one McCain held last week in Jackson, help demonstrate McCain's electability to the party activists who would participate in a convention. But it's unlikely that even McCain or Michigan native Mitt Romney, who have spent the most time in the state, would concentrate as hard on Michigan.
Among Democrats, neither caucus option seems likely to generate much campaigning here. Early caucuses, to challenge New Hampshire, would still break party rules that bar all but four states from voting before Feb. 5, and candidates would maintain their boycott. Feb. 9 caucuses would likely be too late to generate much interest.
You can reach Gordon Trowbridge at (202) 662-8738 or gtrowbridge@detnews.com.
