STATE STORIES
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/POLITICS01/805130376/1409/METRO
Hoogendyk to challenge Sen. Levin
Mayor Kilpatrick's mother faces two Democratic challengers to her seat in Congress.
Gary Heinlein / Detroit
News Lansing
Bureau
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
LANSING
-- Republican State Rep. Jack Hoogendyk turned in more than 30,000 nominating petition signatures Monday, making official his candidacy to be a giant slayer -- or sacrificial lamb -- against 30-year veteran U.S. Sen. Carl Levin. Hoogendyk was among major party candidates who must file by 4 p.m. today for a long list of offices, including one U.S. Senate and all 15 U.S. House seats, the 110-member state House, county offices and judgeships. Like Hoogendyk, state Sen. Martha Scott of Detroit
has decided to challenge an entrenched incumbent. Scott filed nominating petitions Monday at the Coleman A. Young Municipal Center in Detroit
against U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, the mother of Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. Former state Rep. Mary Waters of Detroit
, who works in the Wayne County Prosecutor's Office, also is running against Cheeks Kilpatrick, who is in her 12th year as a congresswoman. All three are Democrats, and winning the Aug. 5 primary is tantamount to winning the election in the heavily Democratic district.
http://forums.detnews.com/redesign/blogs/dcblog/index.cfm?blogid=486
Reps. Knollenberg and Walberg races rated more competitive
Posted by Deb Price on Fri, May 9, 2008 at 10:20 AM
The non-partisan Cook Political Report has changed its ratings of what are expected to be Michigan
's two hottest congressional races. The battle between freshman Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, and state Sen. Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, has moved from "lean Republican" to "tossup." That fight is for the 7th Congressional District, which is in the south-central part of the state. Meanwhile, Joe Knollenberg, the eight-term Oakland-area congressman who is a senior Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, has been moved from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican." He's being challenged in the 9th Congressional District by former Michigan
lottery commissioner Gary Peters. "(The Knollenberg seat) appears to be one of Democrats' better opportunities to knock off a veteran incumbent," said House analyst David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. "Democrats have held the mind-set that this year some of their top opportunities to gain seats will be in districts where they really did not give an incumbent a serious run for their money in 2006.... They have a stronger candidate in Gary Peters." Wasserman cited Peters' strong fund-raising, and also that the 9th district tracks similarly to how the country voted in the 2000 and 2004 presidential races.
http://www.thetimesherald.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2008805100317
Port Huron
to host federal water hearing
By NICHOLAS DESHAIS
Times Herald
• May 10, 2008
Rep. Candice Miller will be in town Monday and she's bringing the federal government with her. Not the entire government -- just a U.S. House subcommittee hearing chaired by Rep. Jim Oberstar, D-Minn. "It's a wonderful and incredibly unique thing to have the chairman of the transportation infrastructure committee coming into my district," Miller said Friday. Miller, the Blue Water Area's congresswoman, sits on the committee. "He shares my advocacy for the Great Lakes and for protecting the Great Lakes
."
The hearing is part of the water resources and environment subcommittee -- part of the transportation committee -- and will focus on the effects harmful nutrients have on the Great Lakes
. "We'll really be focusing on water quality in the Great Lakes
. Not only the monitoring system but all the phosphorus that we are having a lot of problems with as well," she said. Miller was integral in securing funding to construct a monitoring system along the St. Clair River and into Lake St. Clair
. Harmful nutrients, specifically phosphorous, come from many sources, including urban and agricultural activities. The principal source of the nutrients is fertilizer, but household detergents also contribute.
"Dishwashing detergent is almost all phosphorous,"
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/METRO03/805130362/1409/METRO
Macomb
faces more red ink
Jim Lynch / The Detroit
News
First-quarter tax revenues overestimated, county now on pace to run $4M deficit, says finance director. MOUNT CLEMENS -- Macomb
County
officials knew this would be a tight budget year, but it's shaping up to be worse than expected. Results from the first quarter of the year are in and property tax revenues are below 2008's year-to-date expectations. If the early-year results hold steady through year's end, the county may be forced to eat further into its rapidly dwindling rainy-day fund. Today, Finance Director David Diegel will deliver his report on revenues and expenses for the first quarter. It's a report that does not bode well for a county that has run operating deficits the past few years. In October 2007, when officials developed the recommended 2008 budget, a 2.5 percent increase in property tax revenues was projected over 2007, Diegel wrote in a recent memo to commissioners. "We are now being told that the previous projection was too high," he wrote. The 2008 property tax projection has now been revised downward by $1.5 million for an increase over 2007 levels of 1.8 percent, he said. Macomb
County
began running operating deficits in 2004, when it spent $2.7 million more than it generated. In 2005 that number increased to $9.1 million and in 2006, it was $7.2 million.
http://battlecreekenquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/NEWS01/805130306
Calhoun GOP names candidates
Nick Schirripa • The Enquirer • May 13, 2008
A day before the filing deadline, the Calhoun County Republican Party introduced an almost full slate of Republican candidates for state and county seats up for election this year. County party Chairman Scott Durham introduced 13 candidates Monday for several county board seats, all five county executive seats and two state races. Incumbents Sheriff Al Byam, Clerk-Register Anne Norlander, Treasurer Ann Rosenbaum and Drain Commissioner Blaine VanSickle all are seeking re-election. County
Prosecutor
John Hallacy has announced his candidacy for county
District Court
judge. Assistant Prosecutor Dan Buscher said he's running to succeed Hallacy after 14 years in the prosecutor's office. County Commissioner Greg Moore and Commissioner Jase Bolger each are seeking state House seats that will be vacated by term-limited incumbent Republican representatives; Moore in the 62nd District to replace his boss, Battle Creek's Rep. Mike Nofs, and Bolger to succeed Rep. Lorence Wenke of Richland Township. Battle Creek City Commissioner Susan Baldwin also announced her candidacy in the state 62nd House District, which means she will face Moore
in the August primary. On the Democratic ticket, county board Chairwoman Kate Segal is running against Tim Nendorf. As of Monday, Bolger didn't have any Republican opposition, but Democrat Phyllis Smith of Vicksburg
has filed to run in the 63rd.
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/NEWS01/805130322
Stage set today for move on mayor by council
Council plan: Try for ouster ourself and ask governor
BY ZACHARY GORCHOW • FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER • May 13, 2008
The Detroit City Council has crafted a two-track path to ousting Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick by scheduling votes for today to launch the process of removing Kilpatrick while also asking Gov. Jennifer Granholm to expel him. Council members, by 5-3 votes Monday, agreed to put the dual process up for formal votes today both out of necessity -- they lacked enough votes to advance just one of the removal methods -- and as a hedge in case one bogs down. "We had to have both," said Councilman Kwame Kenyatta, a fierce critic of the mayor. If approved, the measures would launch simultaneous -- and historic -- ouster proceedings in response to Kilpatrick's handling of police whistle-blower lawsuits that ended in an $8.4-million settlement last October. A majority of council members previously called on Kilpatrick to resign after learning he had failed to tell them of the role damaging text messages played in his decision to settle the suits at taxpayer expense. Council members who voted Monday to consider both ouster measures were: President Ken Cockrel Jr., Sheila Cockrel, Brenda Jones, Kenyatta and JoAnn Watson. Voting no were President Pro Tem Monica Conyers, Martha Reeves and Alberta Tinsley-Talabi. Barbara-Rose Collins was at the meeting but absent during the votes.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/METRO/805130386
Detroit
City Council to vote on Mayor Kilpatrick ouster options
Members look at removing Kilpatrick themselves, asking Granholm to step in.
Christine MacDonald / The Detroit
News
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
DETROIT
-- A fragile majority of City Council members could be poised today to launch a double-barreled effort to topple Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick by starting their own impeachment-like process and petitioning Gov. Jennifer Granholm to oust him. The possibility emerged as a compromise late Monday among members who are mostly united in their desire to boot Kilpatrick, but have bickered lately over how to do so. But the alliance of five council members is tenuous. There appears to be more support -- six members -- for a vote today to censure the mayor, who faces perjury, obstruction of justice and misconduct-in-office charges for the text-message scandal that has gripped City Hall since January. "I don't think we will know (the outcome) until the votes come down," said Council President Kenneth Cockrel Jr. "I still have a lot of questions. ... I'll be spending the night thinking about it some more." He is among five on the nine-member panel that Councilman Kwame Kenyatta counts as "solid" votes to proceed with in-house removal, also known as forfeiture, while seeking action from Granholm. But Cockrel said he's not sure he'll support what could be a lengthy and expensive forfeiture process through the city charter. If that happens, Councilwoman JoAnn Watson could withdraw her vote to petition Granholm because she advocates forfeiture. Kenyatta was the first on the council to push a resolution demanding that Kilpatrick resign, which passed 7-1 in March. He's confident the City Council will pursue both tracks and won't just stop at censure, a public rebuke that wouldn't directly affect the mayor's job.
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/NEWS01/805130320/1001/NEWS
Council set to vote on ousting Detroit
mayor
Granholm may be asked to step in under Mich.
law
Corey Williams • Associated Press • May 13, 2008 • From Lansing
State
Journal
DETROIT
- The Detroit City Council has spent weeks debating options and various paths it should take to strip "mayor" from before Kwame Kilpatrick's name. That talk could lead today to action when the nine-member group will vote on two resolutions aimed at forcing Kilpatrick from the office he's held for six years. One resolution calls for the council to proceed with forfeiture of office proceedings, while a second asks Gov. Jennifer Granholm to remove Kilpatrick under state law for misconduct in office.
A third resolution calls for publicly censuring the mayor."An extreme situation like this calls for an extreme measure," council President Ken Cockrel Jr. said. "I do support taking it to the governor. That could potentially save a lot of time and a lot of money." Today's votes would follow more than three months of council scrutiny into a text-messaging sex scandal involving Kilpatrick and his role in a confidentiality agreement that led to an $8.4 million whistle-blowers' settlement. Kilpatrick and former Chief of Staff Christine Beatty face a June 9 preliminary examination on charges of perjury, misconduct and obstruction of justice.
http://www.lansingstatejournal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/NEWS01/805130323/1001/NEWS
Lansing
budget lacks unions' $3.3M concessions
City Council adopts fiscal document; labor leaders offer no negotiation details
Susan Vela • Lansing
State
Journal • May 13, 2008 • From Lansing
State
Journal
Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero and the City Council have solutions for addressing a $6 million deficit. All they need now - since Lansing City Council adopted a budget Monday - is labor's OK to Bernero's $3.3 million in wage, health insurance and pension concessions or support for the council's proposals totaling roughly the same dollar amount. Union representatives aren't hinting at where they stand on the deficit strategies put forth by both sides. "No comment," said Mike Parker of the city's Teamsters Local 580, which has about 250 members who do clerical, technical, code compliance, waste water treatment and supervisory work. Other union representatives didn't return calls. However, there's still a lot that can happen. The city's next fiscal year starts July 1, and the mayor still can veto parts of the budget that was approved Monday. "It's all part of the charter process," said Jerry Ambrose, the city's finance director. "There's no decision made about that at all." Bernero said Monday he is "99 percent" satisfied with the council's budget. "The structural deficit must be addressed," he emphasized before council and a large audience. "I'm very pleased to see that City Council has acknowledged this fundamental truth and has offered their own suggestions.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/METRO/805130382
Protecting Michigan
's water wonderland
Rules on water use by farms, firms draw fire as diversion pact debated
Gary Heinlein / Detroit
News Lansing
Bureau
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
LANSING
-- State lawmakers are carefully maneuvering Michigan
toward joining a historic international compact reserving Great Lakes
water for the states and Canadian provinces around them. The compromise they also seek would set state rules governing water use within Michigan
. And it's those rules, rather than the compact, that pits environmentalists against businesses, the state House against the Senate, and Democrats against Republicans. "We're getting closer," said Sen. Patricia Birkholz, R-Saugatuck. "I expect something to pop in the next week or two." Birkholz and Rep. Rebekah Warren, D-Ann Arbor, are the chief negotiators because they are leaders in their respective chambers on environmental issues. Both are being lobbied heavily by special interest groups. The Michigan Farm Bureau and Manufacturers Association say too much regulation could further damage the state's fragile economy by impeding businesses. But the Michigan Environmental Council and other green groups want strict protection for streams, lakes and fish. As Birkholz and Warren seek a balance that protects Michigan
water while capitalizing on the economic potential of its abundance, the clock is ticking. There's a sense that the Great Lakes
states and provinces should waste no time approving a compact that protects the lakes from dry states and regions that covet their water. "At a time when we're struggling, our natural resources -- notably the Great Lakes
-- are a great source of strength to us," said Richard Studley, vice president of the state Chamber of Commerce.
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080513/POLITICS01/805130387
Obama jump-starts effort in Michigan
Wednesday's stops in Macomb, Grand Rapids are 1st to state since July.
Gordon Trowbridge / Detroit
News Washington
Bureau
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Barack Obama's fence-mending in Michigan
begins Wednesday, with the likely Democratic presidential nominee's first visit to the state in 10 months. Obama, who has been criticized here for his tough talk on the domestic auto industry and for removing his name from the January primary ballot, will make appearances in Macomb
County
and Grand Rapids
, part of a two-week itinerary that reflects the Illinois
senator's increasing focus on the general election. While West Virginia
voters hold their primary today, Obama will be in Missouri
, another fall swing state. In Macomb
County
, the campaign appears to be addressing one of its most pressing weaknesses head-on. Macomb
is widely seen as home to "Reagan Democrats," working-class whites who abandoned the Democratic Party in the 1980s. Hillary Clinton, who remains in the primary race despite delegate counts that make her chances slim, has consistently won those voters this year. "I think the campaign acknowledges that in order to win Michigan
and win the White House, he needs to be able to win over the more conservative Democrats outside of the urban beltway," said state Sen. Tupac Hunter, an Obama supporter. Former Rep. David Bonior, a Macomb County Democrat who endorsed Obama last week, said he was working Monday to help the campaign schedule a town-hall event in the county. "Macomb
County
has often been the bellwether of the state, and it can go either way," said Bonior, who had managed John Edwards' 2008 campaign. Talks were held Monday on adding a visit to an auto plant to Obama's schedule on Wednesday, most likely a Chrysler plant, but nothing had been finalized.
NATIONAL STORIES
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/12/us/politics/12vote.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1210597951-SJmBWsdw/Ud+Gvn0ElTxPg&oref=slogin
Voter ID Battle
Shifts to Proof of Citizenship
By IAN URBINA
Published: May 12, 2008
The battle over voting rights will expand this week as lawmakers in Missouri
are expected to support a proposed constitutional amendment to enable election officials to require proof of citizenship from anyone registering to vote. The measure would allow far more rigorous demands than the voter ID requirement recently upheld by the Supreme Court, in which voters had to prove their identity with a government-issued card. Sponsors of the amendment — which requires the approval of voters to go into effect, possibly in an August referendum — say it is part of an effort to prevent illegal immigrants from affecting the political process. Critics say the measure could lead to the disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of legal residents who would find it difficult to prove their citizenship. Voting experts say the Missouri
amendment represents the next logical step for those who have supported stronger voter ID requirements and the next battleground in how elections are conducted. Similar measures requiring proof of citizenship are being considered in at least 19 state legislatures. Bills in Florida
, Kansas
, Oklahoma
and South Carolina
have strong support. But only in Missouri
does the requirement have a chance of taking effect before the presidential election.
http://www.townhall.com/columnists/GuyBenson/2008/05/11/constitutional_empathy
Constitutional "Empathy"
By Guy Benson
John McCain delivered an important speech at Wake
Forest
on Tuesday, but how many Americans even heard about it? Much of the media was too busy obsessing over the latest twist in the Democratic primary to pay McCain's remarks much attention. As the press breathlessly declared Hillary Clinton's demise (again) and wildly celebrated—er, objectively reported—Barack Obama's solid win in North Carolina
, conservatives were showering McCain with positive reviews on a crucial issue: The federal judiciary. Republicans who remain unsold on McCain should take heed. My friend Hugh Hewitt likes to quip that there are seven reasons to embrace John McCain—the war, and six Supreme Court justices over the age of 68. The line often gets a laugh, but it's no joke. Stemming the tide of judicial activism, which systematically strips the American public of its right to decide policy issues at the ballot box, is an urgent priority. The next president will likely nominate several justices to the nation's highest court, as well as hundreds of other federal judges around the country. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama should be entrusted with this responsibility. Each is beholden to leftwing special interest groups like the People for the American Way (evidently "American Way" means "governance by liberal fiat"), and each has demonstrated a knee-jerk hostility to exceptionally qualified jurists who happen to offend their leftist sensibilities.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/us/politics/13mccain.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
McCain Differs With Bush on Climate Change
By ELISABETH BUMILLER and JOHN M. BRODER
Published: May 13, 2008
PORTLAND
, Ore.
— Senator John McCain sought to distance himself from President Bush on Monday as he called for a mandatory limit on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States
to combat climate change. Mr. McCain, in a speech at a wind power company, also pledged to work with the European Union to diplomatically engage China
and India
, two of the world’s biggest polluters, if they refuse to participate in an international agreement to slow global warming. In the prepared text of his speech, e-mailed to reporters on Sunday night and Monday morning, Mr. McCain went so far as to call for punitive tariffs against China and India if they evaded international standards on emissions, but he omitted the threat in his delivered remarks. Aides said he had decided to soften his language because he thought he could be misinterpreted as being opposed to free trade, a central tenet of his campaign and Republican orthodoxy.
But he took a shot at Mr. Bush. “I will not shirk the mantle of leadership that the United States
bears,” Mr. McCain said pointedly. “I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action on serious challenges.”
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90KBGK02&show_article=1&catnum=3
McCain urges free-market principles to reduce global warming
May 12 05:33 PM US
/Eastern
By GLEN JOHNSON
Associated Press Writer
PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) - John McCain broke with the Bush administration and Republican Party orthodoxy Monday as he not only declared global warming real, but reached out to Democrats and independents with a free-market solution that includes capping carbon-fuel emissions. The GOP presidential contender also prodded China
and India
—two major emitters of the greenhouse gases blamed for the planet's warming—to join the effort, although he muted planned talk of tariffs against them in favor of "effective diplomacy" to encourage their compliance. An aide later said the Arizona
senator didn't want to be interpreted as being "at odds with his commitment to open trade." McCain was less restrained in his approach to President Bush, who broke a 2000 campaign pledge to regulate carbon-dioxide emissions and who also backed off signing the Kyoto
global warming protocols shortly after taking office.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10288.html
For McCain, distance from Bush is key
By ROGER SIMON | 5/12/08 6:33 PM EST
This year, John McCain is going to have to do what he failed to do in 2000: Beat George W. Bush. But wait, isn’t McCain going to be running against Barack Obama or (possibly) Hillary Clinton this year? Yes, but only in one sense. In another sense, McCain’s burden this year is as much about convincing voters that he is not a continuation of the Bush presidency as it is about beating his Democratic opponent.
“John McCain unfortunately is burdened by a not very good economy, by an ongoing war in Iraq and by Bush’s poll numbers in the high 20s,” Ken Duberstein, Ronald Reagan’s former chief of staff, who is very well-connected in Republican circles, told me Monday. “McCain can’t be in a position of defending the last eight years.” How serious is the problem for McCain? A USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday states: “George W. Bush may do as much damage to John McCain’s chances of being elected as Jeremiah Wright does to Barack Obama’s.” The poll found “38 percent of likely voters saying McCain’s association with Bush makes them less likely to vote for McCain, while 33 percent say Obama’s association with Wright diminishes their likelihood of voting for Obama.”
http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1739593,00.html
How Green Is John McCain?
Monday, May. 12, 2008 By BRYAN WALSH
Perspective is everything in politics, and after nearly eight years of President George W. Bush's disastrous environmental policy, Atilla the Hun would have looked green by comparison. Certainly Senator John McCain falls into that latter category. The presumptive Republican nominee was an advocate for taking action on global warming back when President Bush was still calling for more research into the problem. McCain hasn't been shy about touting his green credentials on the campaign trail — especially now that he has the Republican nomination sewn up and needs to appeal to independents worried about global warming. At the same time, McCain has been wobbly on environmental issues as a legislator — his lifetime score from the League of Conservation Voters is 24%, while Democratic Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both score 86%. So, when the McCain campaign announced that he would spend much of this week addressing the environment, starting with a speech on climate change Monday afternoon in Portland, Ore., it was worth asking whether this pitch is mostly about politics — or whether McCain is really serious about taking on climate change.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1739251,00.html
McCain's 7 Steps to Beating Obama
Monday, May. 12, 2008 By MICHAEL SCHERER
Sometimes you don't need the secret memo, a Deep Throat source, or the combination to the safe to get the story. Sometimes it's lying right there in front of you, a series of fragments ready to be pieced together. Such is the case when it comes to John McCain's general election strategy for defeating Barack Obama. For weeks now, the Arizona
senator's campaign has been laying its cards on the table, spelling out a strategy for November. Here's a look at seven of their key strategies. 1. Paint Obama as a False Messiah The big debut for this message came on the night of the Virginia
and Maryland
primaries. Mike Huckabee was still in the race, but the McCain campaign wanted to pivot towards the general election. So at an Alexandria Holiday Inn, McCain offered these words: "I do not seek the presidency on the presumption that I am blessed with such personal greatness that history has anointed me to save my country in its hour of need." The code was not hard to break. McCain was calling out Obama as an unfulfilled prophet, built up on lofty rhetoric and personal charisma. McCain's advisors have been hammering the theme ever since, privately speaking skeptically of Obama's big crowds and "Yes We Can" ritual chants. "The lofty rhetoric," said Steve Schmidt, McCain's message man, on a recent flight. "It's nonsense." This will not let up. McCain's campaign calculates that it must put a dent in Obama's powerful aura to keep a Republican in the White House.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/ronpaulgop.html
Ron Paul's forces quietly plot GOP convention revolt against McCain
Virtually all the nation's political attention in recent weeks has focused on the compelling state-by-state presidential nomination struggle between two Democrats and the potential for party-splitting strife over there. But in the meantime, quietly, largely under the radar of most people, the forces of Rep. Ron Paul have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in Minnesota
at the beginning of September. Paul's presidential candidacy has been correctly dismissed all along in terms of winning the nomination. He was even excluded as irrelevant by Fox News from a nationally-televised GOP debate in New Hampshire
. But what's been largely overlooked is Paul's candidacy as a reflection of a powerful lingering dissatisfaction with the Arizona
senator among the party's most conservative conservatives. As anticipated in late March in The Ticket, that situation could be exacerbated by today's expected announcement from former Republican Rep. Bob Barr of Georgia
for the Libertarian Party's presidential nod, a slot held by Paul in 1988.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_general_election_map.php
The General Election Map
12 May 2008 08:33 am
Here's the first Atlantic Election Map of the cycle based on interviews, reportage, polling and guesswork. In this map, I've pushed as many as tossups as I can possibly justify: Virginia, and Nevada to McCain, and Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire to Obama; these five states, with their 56 electoral votes, are tossups masquerading as leaners, so for all intents and purposes, our map has eleven states and 128 electoral votes up for grabs. As polling and information warrant, watch for these states to move out of the lean column and into the tossup column.
McCain's base states + his leaners: 245 electoral votes.
Obama's base states + his leaners: 221 electoral votes.
McCain's base states -- 175 electoral votes.
Texas (34), West Virginia (5), Georgia (15), South Carolina (8), Kentucky (8), Tennessee (11), Alabama (9), Mississippi (6), Louisiana (9), Arkansas (6), Wyoming (3), Idaho (4), Utah (5), Arizona (10), Alaska (3), Oklahoma (7), Kansas (6), Nebraska (5), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), North Carolina (15)
Tilt McCain states -- 70 electoral votes.
Indiana (11) -- competitive House and GOV races; Obama's college force multiplier; state borders IL
Virginia
(13) -- polling shows McCain with lead; McCain will over performing in Tidewater; Obama will overperform in NoVA. Probably will be tossup by the summer as Mark Warner's popularity will stoke Dem enthusiasm.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/house-gop-looks-for-rebound-week-2008-05-11.html
House GOP looks for rebound week
By Jackie Kucinich
Posted: 05/12/08 12:01 AM [ET]
Beleaguered House Republicans kicked off a week in which they hope to coalesce around a single agenda with a memo from their leadership that details some of the conference's plans. The memo argues that Washington
is broken and that Democrats are taking the country in the wrong direction. “To the American people, we say that Republicans will deliver 'the change you deserve,'” said the memo, which was sent to every member of the GOP conference. It highlighted a “positive agenda” of issues House Republicans plan to promote this week, although it gave few details. The memo said Republican Conference Vice Chair Kay Granger (Texas
) will unveil a blueprint Wednesday that will outline challenges the party believes American families face. It also promised that Republicans would announce a new energy policy the week of May 19. The memo comes after another tough week for his conference. The GOP lost a Republican seat in a Louisiana
special election on May 3, and then saw Rep. Vito Fosella (R-N.Y.) ensnared in a scandal after his arrest for drunk driving in Virginia
. Days after his arrest, Fosella admitted to an affair and an out-of-wedlock child, and it is unclear whether his political life will survive the week.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26462
History Gives Hope to Republicans
by William Moloney
Posted: 05/12/2008
Rockefeller vs. Goldwater in 1964. McCarthy vs. LBJ in 1968. Muskie vs. McGovern in 1972. Reagan vs Ford in 1976. Kennedy vs Carter in 1980. Hart vs Mondale in 1984. As history buffs would know each of the above Presidential primary contests was in varying degree long, expensive, emotive, distracting and a delight to the opposing party which invariably triumphed in November usually by a landslide. Today Republicans watching the Clinton-Obama slugfest are weeping- tears of joy. In a year in which every indicator points to a Republican disaster of potentially monumental proportions, history offers hope to the GOP. If we date the modern era from JFK’s assassination and the subsequent cultural –political “blow-up” that was the Sixties our Presidential elections offer some fairly clear and consistent lessons about who wins, who loses, and why. The first- as described above- is that the party having a truly divisive primary season always loses. Secondly, beginning in 1964 the winning candidate is always from the Sun Belt: Texas
(4), California
(4), Arkansas
(2) and Georgia
(1). Third, the Democrats only win when they nominate a Southerner (LBJ, Carter, Clinton) because sons of Dixie
“seem” centrist (i.e. not liberal) and electorally they break up the otherwise solid Republican South.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10295.html
GOP at risk of losing Deep South
seat
By JOSH KRAUSHAAR | 5/13/08 5:00 AM EST
TUPELO, Miss. — This northeast Mississippi city, best known as Elvis Presley’s birthplace, has become the site of a desperate last stand by House Republicans who want to keep their already-reeling caucus from truly being all shook up. After losing two special elections in conservative-minded districts over the past two months, the GOP is now at risk of losing a seat in the heart of the Deep South — and is pouring all its resources into hanging on to it, including a rare campaign trail appearance by Vice President Cheney on Monday. A third loss in Tuesday’s 1st District special election would prompt new predictions of electoral doom in November, hurt the party’s already flagging morale and usher in a new round of public finger-pointing among an already fractured GOP leadership. Southern Democrats, turned off for decades by the party’s liberal-leaning leaders in Washington
, seem to be coming home. This special election comes one week after Rep. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) picked up a House seat in the Baton Rouge
area that Republicans had held for three decades. “You offer Southerners a conservative Democrat on the issues and a fiscal conservative, then I think they’re understanding it now,” said Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-La.), who campaigned alongside Democratic nominee Travis Childers on Sunday. “They were fooled for about 12 years. What happened in 1994 is going to happen in reverse.” The increasingly frantic hopes of the GOP rest on Greg Davis, the mayor of the Memphis
suburb of Southaven
, who is running against Childers to succeed former congressman and now-Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). The lineup of Republican heavy hitters dispatched in the campaign’s final week illustrates the stakes.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26460
HUMAN EVENTS Exclusive: Boss Hoyer to Take the Stand
by Jed Babbin
Posted: 05/12/2008
House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md) will testify tomorrow afternoon in an unprecedented hearing before the Select Committee investigating how the Democrats violated House rules to produce a fraudulent result on August 2, 2007. According to a “notice of hearing” obtained by HUMAN EVENTS, and as explained to us by House sources, Hoyer – along with Cong. Michael McNulty (D-NY) – will be the first members to testify in such a hearing in the history of the Congress. Members often testify in behalf of bills they introduce or in behalf of presidential nominees they favor (or against those they oppose). But it is only in the rarest occasion do they face potentially hostile questions, in ethics committee hearings. Tuesday’s hearing before the “Select Committee to Investigate the Voting Irregularities of August 2, 2007” will be the first time in the history of the House that members of Congress have faced such an inquiry and been subjected to questioning by members of the opposing party.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10262.html
How to end a presidential campaign
By BEN SMITH | 5/12/08 4:22 AM EST
There are 50 ways to leave your lover, 13 ways of looking at a blackbird, and at least six ways to drop out of a presidential race. With Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign running on empty with little hope of victory, the New York
senator's allies and independent observers alike have begun to consider which one she’ll choose. Clinton is balancing a range of considerations: her bank account; her political future and the party’s; her need to win back Obama’s supporters, particularly African-Americans; and her need to keep faith with voters in her own (nearly) half of the party, many of whom have grown to dislike her rival. And so her options range from swift and gracious (although time is running out on that one) to the political version of Custer’s last stand: taking a losing hand to the Democratic National Convention in August. Each has its benefits and its drawbacks, but together they’re what’s left of Clinton
’s options.
And hey, it’s working for Ron Paul.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121064130293987055.html?mod=rss_Politics_And_Policy
Carrying Fight Into Convention
Can Bruise Party in November
By JUNE KRONHOLZ
May 13, 2008; Page A6
It was 1976. Gerald Ford, the sitting president, had won 16 of 27 Republican primaries and led in the party's delegate count. But Ronald Reagan carried the nomination battle into the convention anyway. Why won't some candidates concede? Hillary Clinton's chances of winning the Democratic nomination are increasingly remote, with even a blow-out victory in Tuesday's West Virginia
primary unlikely to make much difference. Still, the New York
senator has vowed to continue campaigning until the nominating process ends June 3 in Montana
, South Dakota
and Puerto Rico
. Political analysts say office seekers who hang on, even long after the race seems futile, may be hoping to position themselves for a later run or to reshape the party more to their liking. They may be bargaining for the vice presidency, feel pressure from supporters or believe there is an off-chance they will get lucky.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080512/NATION/27690189/1001
Clinton
's records vanished after warning of 'very serious' problems
By Jerry Seper
Hillary Rodham Clinton's Rose Law Firm billing records, found in the White House residence in January 1996 two years after they had been subpoenaed by government regulators, disappeared shortly after the first lady was warned that the firm's billing problems were "very serious" and the then-ongoing Whitewater investigation could result in criminal charges, newly obtained records show. More than 1,100 pages of grand jury testimony, investigative reports, memos, charging documents, chronologies, narratives and draft indictments, previously undisclosed but now being "processed" at the Library of Congress, say Mrs. Clinton knew considerably more about the firm's billing problems and their potential ramifications than she publicly acknowledged at the time. According to the documents, given to the Library of Congress by the estate of Sam Dash, former ethics adviser to Whitewater Independent Counsel Kenneth W. Starr, Mrs. Clinton also knew that her former Rose partner Webster L. Hubbell was both the focus of the firm's billing concerns and a federal conflict-of-interest investigation, in which he was suspected of lying in a sworn statement to regulators about the firm's representation of a failed Arkansas savings and loan.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26478
Clinton
Campaign Fights On
by Martha Zoller
Posted: 05/13/2008
Hillary Clinton is mad as hell that she has to fight this long for her assumed and rightful place as the nominee of the Democrat Party for president. People around her cannot believe that the lead she had is gone, the money advantage she had is gone and the experience she brings to the table makes no difference to half the primary voters. She can’t believe she is in second place with very little hope of winning the nomination. Mary Matalin, Republican mainstay and wife of Democrat mainstay James Carville, used to think that a good candidate could win out over a bad campaign. After watching Hillary Clinton’s campaign unravel before her eyes, she’s changed her mind. Even she believed that Hillary was the one to beat. But with Democrat primary voters increasing by the millions and Obama ahead in the popular vote, earned delegates and now super delegates, it’s pretty testy at Clinton, Inc. Last week, a Clinton
insider finally said what they were all thinking, “How could this guy (Obama) with no experience be where he is today.” They even raised the question, “Do you think America
is ready for a black president?” The worst part for this insider and the Clinton
campaign is Obama is presenting himself as the next Jack Kennedy.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10290.html
Can the sisterhood save Hillary?
By JEANNE CUMMINGS | 5/13/08 5:06 AM EST
Can the sisterhood save Hillary Rodham Clinton again? Once again, women are rallying to her eleventh-hour call for aid, especially of the financial sort. But, barring a miracle, the New York
senator’s historic bid to become the first female president is in its final acts. So why press forward? First, Clinton
’s passionate supporters can ensure that she leaves the presidential stage with dignity, surrounded by friends.
Just a day after the debilitating results in the North Carolina
and Indiana
primaries, the New York
senator sought help at a fundraiser dubbed by her campaign “Generations of Women for Hillary.” And, as has been the pattern, the 1,500 mostly women who attended came through, not just meeting the goal of generating $500,000 for her campaign but doubling it. Even the sight of a couple of loud protesters couldn’t erase the obvious relief and excitement of the candidate, who sponsored the event along with her daughter and mother. As the last heckler was escorted out of Washington
’s Omni Shoreham Hotel, Clinton
quipped that she hoped “they paid” before they were booted. Second, her supporters can put the Democratic Party and the Obama campaign on notice that they need to be assuaged before the November general election.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/campaign_creates_a_new_clinton.html
Post-Crucible Clinton
By E. J. Dionne
May 13, 2008
WASHINGTON
-- Hillary Clinton still has a lot to win this year, but not the presidency and not the vice presidency. With Barack Obama having effectively secured the Democratic presidential nomination, it is hard for the Clinton
camp to focus on her successes in this contest. But Clinton
now possesses strengths she did not enjoy when the campaign began. She is, more than ever before, her own person, having emerged decisively from the shadow of her husband. Indeed, she did far better when Bill Clinton played a supporting role than when he was out front, notably during the disastrous South Carolina
primary. There is now a Hillary Clinton constituency in the Democratic Party distinct from the one the former president built. Cartoonists and satirists mocked Hillary Clinton's incarnation as a fighter for blue-collar voters. Yet those who know her well think the fighting Hillary is closer to her self-image -- as someone who has had to overcome many blows in life -- than the inevitable nominee who wove a web of entitlement around herself and ran on experience, much of which was derivative of her husband's. The Hillary Clinton of the late primaries dispelled this portrait, campaigning more on empathy than resume, and more on the problems of today's economy than on her husband's economic achievements.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10230.html
Obama's long country road
By DAVID MARK | 5/12/08 6:32 PM EST
The current high spirits in the Obama campaign could be tempered in coming weeks when West Virginia
and Kentucky
voters render their verdict on the Democratic race. And it’s not just that Hillary Rodham Clinton is heavily favored to win both states — but more than that they could further underline Obama’s lackluster support in Appalachia, a region that is ground zero for the sort of populist Reagan Democrats both parties will covet in the fall. As Clinton noted this week, Obama’s lagging vote totals among white, working class voters in broad swaths of culturally conservative territory continue to feed doubts about his ability to expand his electoral base in Appalachia — a region which, according to one’s definition, can stretch from the cornfields of western New York all the way through the deltas of northern Mississippi. That’s territory that includes states — Ohio
, Pennsylvania
, Virginia
and West Virginia
— that will be key to a Democratic victory in November. And some Democrats are already worried that John McCain is poised to scoop up crucial votes in the region if Obama is the Democratic nominee.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26483
Race Cards and Speech Codes
by Patrick J. Buchanan
Posted: 05/13/2008
"Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen." So said Bill Clinton in New Hampshire of Obama's claim to have been a constant opponent of the war. Clinton
cited Obama's voting record, which was the same as Hillary's in his early Senate years. Yet, for this, the ex-president, designated by Toni Morrison as "our first black president," was charged with playing the race card. Clinton
spent days explaining the "fairy tale" remark. Came then the morning of the South Carolina
primary, where Barack was rolling up a smashing victory. Bill volunteered: "Jesse Jackson won in South Carolina
, twice, in '84 and '88. And he ran a good campaign, and Sen. Obama's running a good campaign." That broke it. Bill Clinton was openly "playing the race card." Now, undoubtedly, Clinton
was trying to belittle, to diminish the importance of the South Carolina
vote for Obama. But why is it racist to say what Clinton
was implying: That, in a Southern state where a huge share of the Democratic vote is African-American, a strong black presidential candidate can be expected to do well? Political history proves this. What is racist about saying it? Aware of the truism, every political analyst was looking closely at the racial breakdown of the South Carolina
vote.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051202620.html
For Obama, the General Election Is Calling
With Clinton
Poised To Win W.Va.
, He Turns To Battleground States
By Peter Slevin and Anne E. Kornblut
Washington
Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, May 13, 2008; Page A06
CHARLESTON
, W.Va.
, May 12 -- Sen. Barack Obama will make it clear on Tuesday that he has turned his attention to the general election, traveling to the November battleground states of Missouri
and Michigan
. Looking past what is expected to be an easy win for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the West Virginia primary, Obama (Ill.) will embrace a two-track strategy that assumes she will continue to campaign aggressively in the remaining five primaries but allows him to increasingly shift his focus to the presumptive GOP nominee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.). Determined to silence any remaining questions about whether he will be the Democratic nominee, Obama will also make a push in Michigan
and Florida
, two swing states where Democrats did not campaign this year because of a dispute over the primary calendar. Next week, Obama will spend three days campaigning, raising money and meeting party activists in Florida
. His campaign is eager to begin engaging McCain more directly, hoping to etch his profile with the broader electorate before the Republican candidate does it for him. But in Michigan
and Florida
, Obama also hopes to begin the process of cleaning up the mess that followed the state parties' decision to schedule early primaries in violation of national party rules. He signaled support Monday for a compromise solution to seating Michigan
's delegates that Clinton (N.Y.) firmly opposes. Obama aides hope that a resolution to the delegate impasse in those two states will neutralize another of her dwindling arguments for staying in the race.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080512222157.t5yf2thb&show_article=1&catnum=3
Obama promises no let-up in support for Israel
May 12 06:23 PM US
/Eastern
Democratic White House hopeful Barack Obama on Monday promised no let-up in US
support for Israel
, after his Republican foe repeatedly claimed he is the favored pick of the Islamist movement Hamas. "You will not see, under my presidency, any slackening in commitment to Israel
's security," Obama said in an interview with The Atlantic magazine online. "My position on Hamas is indistinguishable from the position of Hillary Clinton or John McCain. I said they are a terrorist organization and I've repeatedly condemned them," Obama said. "I mean what I say: since they are a terrorist organization, we should not be dealing with them until they recognize Israel
, renounce terrorism." An informal advisor to Obama's campaign stepped down last week after a British newspaper inquired about his contacts with Hamas. The advisor explained that his paid job with the International Crisis Group required him to have such contacts and he did not want those associations to reflect negatively on Obama's campaign. McCain, the likely Republican nominee, has repeated the assertion that Hamas supports Obama, while painting himself in contrast as a candidate who would be tougher on groups considered "terrorists" by the United States
. The Illinois
senator, who is the son of a Kenyan father and white American mother, acknowledged that the portions of his childhood he spent outside the United States
could lead to the perception that he is more "worldly" than President George W. Bush. "It's conceivable that there are those in the Arab world who say to themselves, 'This is a guy who spent some time in the Muslim world, has a middle name of Hussein, and appears more worldly and has called for talks with people, and so he's not going to be engaging in the same sort of cowboy diplomacy as George Bush,' and that's something they're hopeful about.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZDNkMTdhZjkzY2Q1MWRhOWQxMTRmZWZmZjMyZjU5MmI=
Warring History
Rethinking the Iraq
critics.
By Michael Barone
In trying to understand news about the conflicts in Iraq
, I work to keep in mind the difference between what we know now about decision making in World War II and what most Americans knew at the time. From the memoirs and documents published after the war, we’ve learned how leaders made critical judgments. But at the time, even well-informed journalists only could guess at what was going on behind the scenes.
Today we’re only beginning to learn about what went on behind the scenes in regard to Iraq
. One important new source is the recently published War and Decision by Douglas Feith, the No. 3 civilian at the Pentagon from 2001 to 2005. Feith quotes extensively from unpublished documents and contemporary memorandums, just as in the late 1940s Robert Sherwood did in Roosevelt and Hopkins and Winston Churchill did in his World War II histories. The picture Feith paints is at considerable variance from the narratives with which we’ve become familiar.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080513023219.l6rentx4&show_article=1&catnum=3
China
's new naval base triggers US concerns
May 12 10:33 PM US
/Eastern
China
's new underground nuclear submarine base close to vital sea lanes in Southeast Asia has raised US concerns, with experts calling for a shoring up of alliances in the region to check Beijing
's growing military clout. The base's existence on the southern tip of Hainan
Island
was confirmed for the first time by high resolution satellite images, according to Jane's Intelligence Review, a respected defence periodical, this month. It could hold up to 20 submarines, including a new type of nuclear ballistic missile submarine, and future Chinese aircraft carrier battle groups, posing a challenge to longstanding US
military dominance in Asia
. China
should not pursue such "high-end military options," warned Admiral Timothy Keating, the top commander of US forces in Asia
, in an interview with the Voice of America last week. He underlined America
's "firm intention" not to abandon its dominating military role in the Pacific and told Beijing
it would face "sure defeat" if it took on the United States
militarily. Worried mostly about Taiwan
's security, Washington
has often questioned China
's military expansion on the back of rapid economic growth.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=080512220611.11pyd3bz&show_article=1&catnum=3
US welcomes Serb election
May 12 06:07 PM US
/Eastern
The United States
said Monday that elections in Serbia
seem to have gone well, adding that there were no reports of serious incidents from international observers. "I think the Serbian people can be proud of an election, the recent election that took place," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters. "There were observers on the ground, and I haven't seen any reports of serious incidents that would call into question the final results of the election," McCormack added. The preliminary results indicate that one party will have enough votes in order "to lead the efforts to form a coalition government," he added. "Those decisions, however, are going to be up to the Serbian people and the Serbian leaders how they arrange themselves politically," the spokesman said. "We have, of course, encouraged Serbia
to look forward, not backwards, and look towards a different kind of and new future with Europe
and the European Union (EU)," he said. Pro-Western forces in Serbia
overcame nationalist rivals, with President Boris Tadic's pro-EU alliance garnering 38.8 percent in Sunday's elections that were dominated by the issue of Serbian ties with the European Union.
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26477
Russia
's New Militarism
by Robert Maginnis
Posted: 05/13/2008
Last week, events in Moscow
were orchestrated Soviet style. On Wednesday, inside the Grand
Kremlin
Palace
, Vladimir Putin surrendered the Russian presidency to his handpicked subordinate, Dmitri Medvedev, who then turned to Putin to ask him to become prime minister. Putin accepted and Medvedev promised to “do everything to ensure” the security of Russia
. Afterward, the duo stepped into Cathedral Square to review the goose-stepping Presidential Regiment. Two days later, Medvedev and Putin stood shoulder-to-shoulder in Red Square
to review a massive military parade -- the first significant arms display since the end of the Cold War. Medvedev used the occasion to take a shot at the United States
when he said, “We must not allow contempt for the norms of international law," a veiled criticism of America
’s aggressive foreign policy such as in Iraq
. These events, the speeches and the new power couple send a clear message: Russia
is ready to regain its “great power” status and Moscow
’s new militarism is the means to that end.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=Y2YwYzMzMTU5YmY2MGM0NmFkZWJjMTA2NzBhNzM5YjE=
Progress Report
Remember Basra
?
By Peter Wehner
In an important front-page story in the New York Times Monday, we read this: Three hundred miles south of Baghdad
, the oil-saturated city of Basra
has been transformed by its own surge, now seven weeks old. In a rare success, forces loyal to Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki have largely quieted the city, to the initial surprise and growing delight of many inhabitants who only a month ago shuddered under deadly clashes between Iraqi troops and Shiite militias. And this: Among the many uncertainties are whether the government, criticized for incompetence at the start of the operation, can maintain the high level of troops here. But in interviews across Basra
, residents overwhelmingly reported a substantial improvement in their everyday lives. “The circle of fear is broken,” said Shaker, owner of a floating restaurant on Basra
’s famed Corniche promenade, who, although optimistic, was still afraid to give his full name, as were many of those interviewed.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=M2JmODNjMWJmODZlMDQ4NmIxYTllNGM5ZDE5MWJlZjI=
The Iranian Connection
What’s wrong in Lebanon
.
By Claudia Rosett
In Lebanon
, the Iranian-backed vanguard of terror known as Hezbollah has again drawn its weapons to provoke the worst crisis since it launched a war against Israel
in the summer of 2006. The fighting that began last week in Beirut, and then relocated east to the Chouf Mountains and north to Tripoli, is the latest act in the relentless smothering of the Lebanese democratic state. At best, we might next see an uneasy respite in the killing while the usual players haggle, President Bush trolls the region for that oh-so-elusive Middle-East-peace legacy, Hezbollah further stocks its arsenal and from behind the barrel of a gun consolidates its grip, United Nations peacekeepers get paid to watch — and Lebanon’s hopes for democracy slide ever deeper into the pit. By now, it ought to be obvious that Lebanon
’s agonies will not be solved by parleys in Beirut
. Nor will any solution come from elaborately brokered deals tendered by the Arab League, nor by way of American-inked diplomatic road maps, conclaves, and more United Nations resolutions.
