"GRANHOLM STRUGGLES"

May 25, 2006

In today's Political Diary:

Granholm Struggling

For the third time in two weeks, a poll has come out showing Michigan Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm trailing Republican challenger Dick DeVos. The latest survey has Ms. Granholm behind Mr. DeVos by three points, 45-42, while two surveys conducted during the first week of May showed Ms. Granholm down one point to Mr. DeVos.

Ms. Granholm's problems are twofold. First, she faces a challenger with bottomless pockets. One reason for Mr. DeVos's rise in the polls is that he's spent an estimated $4 million since mid-February saturating the airwaves with ads, while Ms. Granholm has yet to launch a paid media campaign for her reelection bid.

The bigger issue facing Ms. Granholm, however, is the

Michigan

economy. Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the state's unemployment rate jumping four-tenths of a percent in April to 7.2% -- two and a half points higher than the national average. While some of the service sectors of

Michigan

's economy are showing very modest growth, the all-important manufacturing sector continues to contract, shedding 3.1% over the last twelve months.

Ms. Granholm has been scrambling to create the perception of positive economic momentum. A trip to

Japan

last week netted commitments from a dozen companies for more than $80 million worth of investment in

Michigan

and an estimated 400-plus jobs. This week Ms. Granholm signed legislation shifting millions of dollars worth of road projects scheduled for 2007 forward into the election year, a move she says will eventually produce another 7,100 jobs.

It may not be enough. If the economy continues to sputter, Mr. DeVos's biggest asset in this race may turn out not to be his vast wealth but his experience as a successful businessman. "I understand how to turn around an enterprise that is in serious decline," he told a group at the Detroit Economic Club on Tuesday, "When I look at

Michigan

, I see the same challenges, and I know the same approach will work." If voters agree, Governor Granholm could find herself among

Michigan

's unemployed come the end of this year.

-- Tom Bevan, executive editor of RealClearPolitics.com